Akzo Nobel NV (AKZO.AS): CEO/CFO meeting feedback

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Akzo Nobel NV (AKZO.AS): CEO/CFO meeting feedback

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27 Jul 2026 00:00:08 ET │ 14 pages

Akzo Nobel NV (AKZO.AS)

CEO/CFO meeting feedback

CITI'S TAKE

Buy Our meeting with management provided a more reassuring explanation

for 2Q Deco EMEA weakness, which was largely driven by two customer- Short-Term View: Upside, expires 02-SEP-26

specific issues rather than the broader market; seemingly one customer Price (24 Jul 26 13:28) €57.30

has since returned to normal ordering. China is the offset, margins are Target price €61.00

recovering but management is now less confident in a 2027 market Expected share price return 6.5%

recovery and has tempered expectations for a volume improvement next Expected dividend yield 22.7%

year. Confidence in the Axalta opportunity remains high, with the $600m Expected total return 29.1%

cost synergy target viewed as achievable under likely antitrust outcomes

Market Cap €9,801M and revenue synergies expected to develop over one to two years. We raise

US$11,151M 3Q adjusted EBITDA by 3% to €388m and FY26 by 2% to €1,466m,

marginally below the €1,470m guidance floor. We remain positive given

3Q Deco trading on track and a clear catalyst path through the Axalta

vote, regulatory progress, special dividend and potential Southeast Asia Ranulf Orr, CFAAC

Deco portfolio action. +44-20-7986-3922

ranulf.orr@citi.com

Meeting Feedback — Sebastian Satz, CFA

Meeting feedback3Q trading on track; 2Q Deco EMEA weakness largely company- +44-203-569-3662

specific sebastian.satz@citi.com

Management said 3Q order patterns have shown nothing unusual so far in Deco. The

disappointing 2Q Deco EMEA volumes were largely attributed to two customers: one Omi Pallavi

materially destocked during a systems change, while another experienced financial +44-20-7508-1367