APAC Food & Beverages Asahi & Kirin Q2 high frequency data: Strong domestic beer and massive FX tailwinds amplifying solid underlying performance

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APAC Food & Beverages Asahi & Kirin Q2 high frequency data: Strong domestic beer and massive FX tailwinds amplifying solid underlying performance

27 July 2026

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APAC Food & Beverages

Asahi & Kirin Q2 high frequency data: Strong domestic beer and

massive FX tailwinds amplifying solid underlying performance

In Japan, Asahi outperformed Kirin in Q2 as the industry posted double digit growth on Euan McLeish

+81 3 5962 9611 the back of prior year de-stocking. Our high frequency data indicates solid underlying Q2

euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.com momentum for Asahi in Europe, with Czech and UK remaining strong and Polish Deposit

Return Scheme headwinds normalizing, but Italy momentum deteriorating significantly. In

Hao Wang, CFA Australia, on-trade strength continued despite softening consumer sentiment and, while

+852 2123 2627

hao.wang@bernsteinsg.com we expect this to be positive for both brewers, sequentially slowing restaurant spend in

Queensland is likely a headwind for Kirin. Currency looks set to be a material tailwind for

Mufei Gao both companies in Q2, with Asahi benefiting c.+10% at the group level, and Kirin +5%, by

+81 3 6777 6995 our estimates. Net, net, we have moderated our Asahi EPS estimates by 0.6%/0.5% (mainly

mufei.gao@bernsteinsg.com

Japan Soft Drinks top line), and we have increased our Kirin EPS estimates by 1.1%/3.7%

mainly reflecting increased Kyowa Kirin guidance.

Makoto Morozumi

+81 3 6777 6972

makoto.morozumi@bernsteinsg.com In Europe, Czech consumer confidence and F&B retail sales remained strong in Q2 (+6/7%

yoy), while Poland started the quarter with sluggish momentum before improving, and we

expect disruption from the container deposit system to largely normalize in Q2. Romania’s