Risk Reward Update: Liberty Energy | North America

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update: Liberty Energy | North America

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Liberty Energy (LBRT.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Revenue/Active Fleet ($, mm) 104 120 127 134

EBITDA/Active Fleet ($, mm) 15.6 14.5 18.0 21.2

Fleets Deployed 38.5 37.5 38.9 37.1

Fleet Utilization (%) 88.3 91.0 94.8 90.5

EBITDA Margin (%) 15.0 11.6 14.3 20.9

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

US completions activity RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Frac industry utilization and pricing trends US completions activity surprises to the upside

Power biz launch execution Supply attrition in US more robust than Sales / 4,481

M&A or other strategic activity expected Revenue 4,254 4,551

FCF generation and shareholder returns Power business earnings/deployment execution ($, mm) 4,356

surprises to the upside

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Upside FCF surprise allows for increased TSR 551

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 546 597

($, mm)

Frac demand surprising to the downside 577

100% North America Frac pricing trends below expectations

Power business earnings/deployment execution

surprises to the downside Net income

(105) 68

Commodity price/cyclical risk ($, mm)Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 19

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OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

0.04

MS ALPHA MODELS Inst. Owners, % Active 47.5% EPS (0.63) 0.52

($)

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.7x 0.14

4/5 24 Month 4/5 3 Month

BEST Horizon MOST Horizon HF Sector Net Exposure 4.7%

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored exposures held with MSPB. Information may be