Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Yara International ASA (YAR.OL)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Sales Growth (%) 12.7 14.1 1.3 (11.6)

EBITDA margin pre exceptionals (%) 17.9 18.6 16.3 15.6

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

EBITDA/EPS sensitivities incl. prices, FX and RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

feedstock changes Higher (NPK) premia

Execution and delivery of the YIP and EBITDA Demand-driven S&D + steeper cost curve (not Sales / 17,833

growth programmes set by EU) Revenue 16,626 19,593

Developments in the green/blue ammonia chain, (Special) cash returns (US$, mn) 17,422

especially the clean fuel opportunity Clean ammonia optionality

Further special cash returns

M&A RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 3,323

EBITDA

European production assets at top of the cost 2,979 4,005

(US$, mn)

curve (mid-cycle) 3,546GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Supply-driven nitrogen S&D and flatter cost

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland curve 0-10% 5.87 China and India Appreciation of USD vs BRL, EUR and NOK EPS

0-10% India Nitrogen fertiliser application policies and (US$) 4.58 8.06

0-10% Japan regulation 6.36

0-10% MEA

0-10% Mainland China Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 10-20% North America Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

30-40% Europe ex UK Inst. Owners, % Active 69.5%

30-40% Latin America

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

MS ALPHA MODELS exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

1/5 3 Month trends.exposure.Long/ShortSector % Ratioof Total= LongNet ExposureExposure =/ Short(For a