Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Suzhou TFC Optical Communication Co Ltd. (300394.SZ)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Passive segment revenue YoY (%) 32 30 30 20

Active segment revenue YoY (%) 81 150 47 36

Passive GPM% (%) 63.7 63.0 63.0 63.0

Active GPM% (%) 46.6 45.0 43.0 43.0

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

800G optical engine shipment and revenue RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

growth Faster-than-expected optical engine adoption

Cloud and telco capex Stronger 800G and 1.6T ramp-up Sales / 14,603.7

Auto LiDAR adoption rate Later breakthrough in CPO Revenue 9,925.0 31,722.4

Developments in Co-Packaged Optics Faster-than-expected LiDAR adoption (Rmb, mn) 15,675.4

Stronger-than-expected cloud capex growth

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE 4,785

Net income APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Geopolitical tensions, delaying 800G and 1.6T 4,182.0 11,201.2 0-10% (Rmb, mn) China and India optical engine development 5,843.5

0-10% India Slower telco and cloud capex

0-10% Japan New optical engine entrants

0-10% Latin America Earlier breakthrough in CPO or other new EPS 4.4

0-10% MEA technology (Rmb) 3.8 10.3

0-10% UK Component shortage 5.4

10-20% Europe ex UK

20-30% Mainland China Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 20-30% North America Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 86.6%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MS ALPHA MODELS

3/5 3 Month

MOST Horizon

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile

Morgan Stanley Research 3