Becle SAB de CV (CUERVO.MX): 2Q26 Review: Another Miss, Execution Risk Starts to Ease

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Becle SAB de CV (CUERVO.MX): 2Q26 Review: Another Miss, Execution Risk Starts to Ease

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24 Jul 2026 07:59:04 ET │ 11 pages

Becle SAB de CV (CUERVO.MX)

2Q26 Review: Another Miss, Execution Risk Starts to Ease

CITI'S TAKE

Neutral Cuervo delivered another weak quarter, with net sales declining 13.9%YoY,

4% below our estimate and 1% below consensus, while gross margin Price (23 Jul 26 14:00) P$14.41

missed our forecast by 343bps. EBITDA was broadly in line only because Target price P$15.50

lower operating expenses offset the gross-profit shortfall. After several Expected share price return 7.6%

disappointing quarters, we are not prepared to call a recovery. Still, U.S. Expected dividend yield 3.5%

shipment declines improved to -8.7%YoY from -23.8%YoY in 1Q26, Expected total return 11.0%

providing the first credible sign that execution risk around the distributor

Market Cap P$51,749M transition is easing. Mexico remained resilient and margins were broadly

US$2,953M stable excluding FX. In our view, the reset is progressing, but the company

still needs to prove that better execution can translate into sustainable

U.S. growth. We remain on the sidelines.

Renata CabralAC

U.S.: Better Execution, No Recovery Yet. — U.S. net sales declined 20.5%YoY and +55-11-4009-7561

shipments fell 8.7%YoY. The sequential improvement from 1Q26 suggests renata.cabral@citi.com

distributor disruption is becoming less severe, but it does not prove underlying

Luis Felipe Terzarioldemand has recovered. With limited visibility on depletions, we believe the quarter

+55-11-4009-3564reduces execution risk without changing the weak earnings outlook. A more

constructive view requires evidence that improved distribution is translating into luis.terzariol@citi.com

organic revenue growth.