Taiwan: IP growth beat expectations in June

研报英文原文证据摘录

Taiwan: IP growth beat expectations in June

Global Markets Research

23 July 2026Asia Insights

Economics - Asia Pacific/Asia ex-Japan

Research Analysts

Taiwan: IP growth beat expectations in June Asia Economics

Jeong Woo Park - NSL

We see some risk of an upside surprise to Q2 GDP growth amid a jeongwoo.park@nomura.com

stronger-than-expected recovery in domestic demand. +65 6433 6197

Si Ying Toh, CFA - NSL

• IP growth beat expectations and rose to 23.0% y-o-y in June from 11.9% in May, siying.toh@nomura.com

mainly driven by AI-related tech production. Sequentially, IP growth picked up to 2.7% +65 6433 6666

m-o-m sa from 1.6%, suggesting a further improvement in underlying momentum.

• We see evidence of stronger domestic demand, with an increase in investment goods

production and a recovery in retail sales growth, as auto sales improved. The latter

supports our thesis of a domestic consumption recovery.

• Nomura’s view: On growth implications, our real-time GDP growth tracker, Nomura-

TWnow, is tracking Q2 GDP growth at 11.2% y-o-y, above our baseline forecast of

10.9%. This suggests a positive surprise to Q2 GDP growth could be on the cards.

Amid the sustained AI boom and a recovery in domestic demand, we maintain our

above-consensus 2026 GDP growth forecast of 11.6% (Consensus: 9.5%; CBC:

9.45%) and reiterate our view that the CBC will deliver two 12.5bp rate hikes

(December 2026 and March 2027; terminal rate: 2.25%).

IP growth beat expectations in June

Taiwan’s industrial production (IP) growth beat expectations, rising to 23.0% y-o-y in June

from 11.9% in May (Consensus: 17.5%; Nomura: 17.3%), primarily driven by AI-related

tech production. On a sequential basis, IP growth picked up to 2.7% m-o-m sa from 1.6%,

suggesting a further improvement in underlying momentum.