Kasikornbank: Earnings resilience and higher DPS drive higher price target

研报英文原文证据摘录

Kasikornbank: Earnings resilience and higher DPS drive higher price target

Kasikornbank UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP Thesisa guideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: Can KBANK deliver earnings growth despite lower interest rates in 2026-28E?

Yes. The H126 results indicate KBANK is tracking ahead of its current 2026 targets for loan growth,

NIM and non-NII growth. Stronger non-interest income, a bottoming NIM and resilient credit quality

should offset H226 fee normalisation, while accelerated NPL resolution does not affect 2026-28E

credit cost assumptions..

Q: Can KBANK maintain attractive shareholder returns after the recent sector re-rating?

Yes. Management did not signal a shift from buybacks to higher dividends, but reiterated total

shareholder return as a priority. With CET1 around 17% and improved earnings visibility, KBANK has

capital flexibility to sustain distributions and growth. We raise our 2026-28E DPS forecast from Bt12

to Bt14, broadly in line with 2025 despite rate headwinds.

UBS VIEW Although KBANK has outperformed following expectations of stronger capital returns and improved

political stability, we believe the market still underestimates the durability of earnings in a lower-rate

environment. The analyst meeting reinforced our conviction that upside to loan growth, NIM and

non-NII could lead to upward revisions to the bank's 2026 targets. Combined with manageable asset

quality, adequate reserve coverage and sustainable dividends, we see further scope for valuation re-

rating. We therefore raise our PT to Bt255 from Bt218 and maintain our positive stance on the stock.

EVIDENCE We raise our 2026-28E earnings forecasts by 12-16%, reflecting stronger non-NII assumptions and

lower credit cost forecasts.