Cathay Pacific: H126 guidance beat, robust demand extending into summer

研报英文原文证据摘录

Cathay Pacific: H126 guidance beat, robust demand extending into summer

Global Research

22 July 2026ab

First Read

EquitiesCathay Pacific

H126 guidance beat, robust demand extending Hong Kong

into summer Airlines

12-month rating Buy

12m price target HK$16.90

H126 guidance sits solidly above market expectations

Including HK$1.4bn non-recurring non-cash gain deemed partial disposal of Air China,

Cathay guided HK$6.0-6.5bn H126 profit, significantly ahead of expectations (UBSe: HK Price (21 Jul 2026) HK$13.25

$5.2bn). Despite significantly higher fuel cost which made up of c30% of opex, RIC: 0293.HK BBG: 293 HK

recurring profit was guided to be HK$4.6-5.1bn (UBSe: 3.8bn), up 26%-40% YoY,

Trading data and key metrics

thanks to robust passenger demand despite a significantly higher airfare environment

along with robust cargo demand trend thanks to AI boom which lifts shipment demand 52-wk range HK$14.06-10.42

on server, semiconductors and other higher value-added items. Furthermore, its low- Market cap. HK$85.3b/US$10.9b

cost carrier arm HK Express performance has improved off a low base where outbound Shares o/s 6,438m (ORD)

demand to Japan in 2025 was subdued due to concerns around potential earthquake, Free float 15%

while contribution from associates has improved. The solid H126 demonstrated Avg. daily volume ('000) 14,979

Cathay's superior pricing power, and we see further upside into H226E which is a Avg. daily value (m) HK$187.3

traditionally seasonally stronger period with potentially lower fuel price, contingent on Common s/h equity (12/26E) HK$60.3b

Middle East geopolitical tensions. We reiterate Cathay as one of our top picks in APAC P/BV (12/26E) 1.4x

airlines sector. Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 1.5x

Demand strength across the board EPS (UBS, diluted) (HK$)