Hanhwa Ocean: CSP setback priced in; Waiting for the next catalysts

研报英文原文证据摘录

Hanhwa Ocean: CSP setback priced in; Waiting for the next catalysts

Hanwha Ocean UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP Thesisa guideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: Can US Navy demand offset the cyclicality of the commercial shipbuilding sector?

No, but we expect it to provide a buffer. We assume US Navy orders slowly materialize from 2027E,

beginning with logistic vessels to Philly Yard. We forecast defense to comprise 28% of 2030E orders,

up from 2% in 2025.

Q: Will aging fleet, green transition and geopolitics drive new ship orders further?

We forecast HOC parent orders to rise to US$11.1bn in 2026E (+10% YoY) and remain in the US$10-

11bn range in 2026-28E as we await further clarity in naval export orders.

Q: Can peak margins exceed the last peak in 2010?

Yes, given better mix, cost deflation and change in management. We forecast Commercial ship OPM

to peak at 17% in 2026E and moderate in 2027-28E but expect HOC total OPM to continue to rise

given higher naval OPM.

UBS VIEW The loss of the US$13bn CPSP bid was significant given its importance to HOC’s naval growth

narrative and we believe it highlights the challenges in securing NATO orders. However, we maintain

Buy as we believe much of the defense premium has now been unwound. We see LNGC pricing, US

regulatory milestones and improved earnings visibility as the key catalysts for rerating from here.

EVIDENCE Hanwha plans to utilize the US$150bn MASGA fund to expand its US Hanwha Philly yard (US$5bn

capex planned), including entering the US Navy shipbuilding business. FID of new LNG export

terminals in the US and Qatar are expected to be key drivers for new LNGC demand. HOC is bidding

independently for the Thailand Frigate program. The new build prices index has risen 2% since