Paladin Energy Limited: Value emerging

研报英文原文证据摘录

Paladin Energy Limited: Value emerging

Global Research

22 July 2026ab

Paladin Energy Limited Equities

AustraliaValue emerging

Mining

12-month rating Buy *

Upgrade to BUY on SP underperformance Prior : Neutral

PDN finished FY26 with a wet sail, at/above the upper end of recently revised guidance 12m price target A$11.70

delivering production/sales of 4.82/4.35Mlb, in line with UBSe (4.8/4.4Mlb). Key focus Prior : A$12.60

was FY27 guidance, with management guiding production 5.1–5.6Mlb versus UBSe

Price (22 Jul 2026) A$9.13

5.7Mlb. While this implies a softer outlook than expected, we note management

trended more conservative. Updating for 1) JQ26, 2) moving to the top-end of FY27 RIC: PDN.AX BBG: PDN AU

production guidance and 3) leaning more conservative on cost (UBSe unit cost US$49/lb

Trading data and key metrics

vs guidance US$44–48/lb) sees us lower our FY26/27 EPSe -17/-8% and our price target

52-wk range A$14.54-6.21

-7% to A$11.70/sh. However, with the share price down ~37% from 2026 highs (versus

a ~5% increase in spot uranium and LT price indicators nearing US$100/lb), we believe Market cap. A$3.64b/US$2.55b

the stock is oversold. With PDN 1) continuing to derisk Langer Heinrich (LHM) while also Shares o/s 399m (ORD)

2) advancing its growth project Patterson Lake South (PLS) through key permitting Free float 92%

milestones, and 3) the business generating cash (+US$45m Q to US$265m), we see Avg. daily volume ('000) 3,058

asymmetric upside and upgrade PDN to BUY. Avg. daily value (m) A$32

Common s/h equity (06/26E) US$1.18b

FY27 (and beyond) in focus P/BV (06/26E) 2.4x

With FY26 mostly a lock, key focus was FY27 guidance, with management guiding FY27 Net debt to EBITDA (06/26E) 0.3x

production of 5.1–5.6Mlb versus UBSe of 5.7Mlb. We highlight mgmt commentary