Valley National Bancorp: 2Q26 First Look: Modest Miss, Guide Better

研报英文原文证据摘录

Valley National Bancorp: 2Q26 First Look: Modest Miss, Guide Better

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 17.1%

Forecast dividend yield 3.0%

Forecast stock return 20.1%

Market return assumption 9.3%

Forecast excess return 10.8%

Company Description

Valley National Bancorp, headquartered in Morristown, NJ, is a ~$64bn-asset regional bank

operating across NJ, NY, FL, AL, CA and select national verticals. VLY provides commercial

banking, CRE, C&I, residential mortgage, consumer, auto, and specialty lending, funded

through retail, commercial, treasury management, and specialty deposits. Key differentiators

include its Florida growth, technology banking/Leumi ecosystem, specialty deposit verticals,

and an improving funding mix.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Our VLY price target is derived by applying a target P/E multiple on our 2027 EPS estimate.

Our target P/E multiple is informed by the company's historical P/E multiple, its historical

multiple vs. peers, and market multiples for the banking industry. Downside risks include: 1)

lower deposit levels resulting from decreased liquidity levels in the financial system; 2) credit

deterioration and reduced industry-wide loan demand resulting from a potential recession; 3)

net interest margin pressure resulting from an accelerated pace of rate cuts related to a

potential recession, and 4) lower profitability and capital returns resulting from a more

rigorous regulatory environment. Upside risks include: 1) enhanced deposit gathering, loan

production, and credit performance resulting from continued economic growth; 2) net

interest margin expansion resulting from a more moderate pace of rate cuts; and 3) improved

profitability and capital return to shareholders resulting from a friendlier regulatory regime.