Dow Inc Risks in both directions; Maintain Neutral

研报英文原文证据摘录

Dow Inc Risks in both directions; Maintain Neutral

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

Dow Inc Equities

United StatesRisks in both directions; Maintain Neutral

Chemicals, Commodity

12-month rating Neutral

Our View

We lift our 2026/27/28 EBITDA estimates by 3%/1%/1% to $6.0B/$5.8B/$5.9B 12m price target US$32.00

respectively. This reflects our latest view on pricing and margins, mainly due to Prior : US$29.00

higher III EBITDA in 2Q/3Q expectations, and delayed PE declines in 2H vs our prior

Price (23 Jul 2026) US$30.85

estimates. We maintain our Neutral rating.

RIC: DOW.N BBG: DOW US

We think the setup from here skews more balanced up and down. DOW guide

reflects PE prices flat after the June decline. We can see upside to that if oil moves Trading data and key metrics

higher, but if there is de-escalation we'd expect prices to move lower. Our 3Q 52-wk range US$41.87-20.65

EBITDA of $1.63B EBITDA is slightly below DOW guidance as we bake in renewed Market cap. US$22.4b

PE declines in September, and then into 4Q. There are a wide range of outcomes, Shares o/s 725m (COM)

but we don't think we reach earlier highs in the stock unless perceptions change Free float 100%

on the magnitude of potential disruption. Higher oil prices, renewed hostilities in Avg. daily volume ('000) 2,865

the Persian Gulf, potential disruptions in the Red Sea and lower inventories Avg. daily value (m) US$96.3

globally vs. the start of 2026 means upside risk for pricing near-term. However, the

Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$16.1b

2Q spot price decline for PE meant the market adjusted faster to disruptions than

P/BV (12/26E) 1.4x

many anticipated and there is active debate on whether a potential near-term

Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 2.2x

price rise will come or is short lived.

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)