First Read Daily Commodities Note: Brent breaks US$100/bbl

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read Daily Commodities Note: Brent breaks US$100/bbl

franking credit) and growth (Kalkaroo). Our NPV based price target is little changed at

$20.55/sh (from $20.70) and we retain a Neutral rating, however we note lifting our

long term copper price from US$5.50/lb to US$6.00/lb our NPV lifts to $23.00/sh.Link to

note Source: UBS.

AAL - 2Q26 production in line lower: Anglo's 2Q production numbers look solid with

1) 2Q in line with VA consensus, 2) 2026 production guidance unchanged, and 3) 2026

Copper unit cost guidance lowered (mainly due to by-products/ TCRCs). Anglo flags the

merger with Teck is "on track" (completion still expected between Sept-26 and Mar-27)

and discussions on the sale of De Beers are "progressing". We expect the strength in 1H

Copper EBITDA from lower unit costs to be offset by: 1) lower iron ore realised pricing ;

2) Non-core with Steelmaking De Beers reported to be EBITDA negative in 1H; overall we

still see downside risk to 1H consensus EBITDA of $3.9bn (UBSe $3.6bn). We note Teck's

2Q earnings are materially ahead of consensus. Link to note Source: UBS.

FCX - Grasberg recovery on-track: FCX's 2Q26 results were mixed but encouraging.

Positives: 2Q results were ahead of consensus. The most important takeaway from the

quarter is that Grasberg's recovery remains on schedule with mining rates already at/

above targeted 2H26 levels, the operational risks associated with the Sep 2025

disruption continue to diminish in our view. This should drive material production and

earnings growth in 4Q26 through 2027-28. 2026 group net cost guidance is marginally

lowered $5c/lb. Negatives: 2027 capex is increased by $300m; Grasberg 2028

production guidance is marginally lower (grade sequencing), albeit 2028 group sales

guide is unchanged.