Nestlé (NESN SW): Buy: Small wrinkles distract from improving fundamentals

研报英文原文证据摘录

Nestlé (NESN SW): Buy: Small wrinkles distract from improving fundamentals

24 July 2026

Equities

Food Products Nestlé (NESN SW)

Buy: Small wrinkles distract from improving fundamentals Switzerland

◆ Nestlé’s H1 results slightly beat consensus but high

MAINTAIN BUY

expectations and small, unexpected headwinds hit the shares

◆ Yet we think fundamentals are improving, helped by better TARGET PRICE (CHF) PREVIOUS TARGET (CHF)

execution, and this can show up in the H2 performance 95.00 94.00

◆ TP up to CHF95 (from CHF94) on FX, with underlying SHARE PRICE (CHF) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

estimates little changed. We still see good scope for re-rating 79.29 +19.8%

(as of 23 Jul 2026)

A modest beat…but expectations had moved: Relative to the published consensus, MARKET DATA

Nestlé’s results were a modest beat. Q2 organic sales growth was 3.7% (cons. 3.5%) Market cap (CHFm) 204 292 Free float 97% Market cap (USDm) 250 113 BBG NESN SW

with RIG in line at 1.8%. Operating profit (CHF7.1bn vs cons CHF7.0bn) and EPS 3m ADTV (USDm) 314 RIC NESN.S

(CHF2.22 vs cons CHF2.18) were also modestly ahead, with the H1 margin decline

FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (CHF)

of 10bp less than the 30bp decline expected by consensus. Yet a good run in the Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

shares meant that these figures were insufficient for investors, especially as North HSBC EPS 4.41 4.60 4.99 5.33

HSBC EPS (prev) 4.41 4.51 4.85 5.17

America, Europe and Nespresso disappointed, sending the shares down sharply. Change (%) 0.0 2.1 2.8 3.0

See inside for a full deviation table. Consensus EPS 4.30 4.45 4.72 5.02

PE (x) 18.0 17.2 15.9 14.9

Dividend yield (%) 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.3

Wrinkles can be ironed out in H2: Part of the issue in Q2 was weakness in North EV/EBITDA (x) 13.3 12.8 11.9 11.1