Sales & Trading

研报英文原文证据摘录

Sales & Trading

Laoise Ni Thighearnaigh AC Sales & Trading J P M O R G A Nlaoise.nithighearnaigh@jpmorgan.com

JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A, London Branch 24 July 2026

EM FX

RUB Another day, another 78.20/55 trading range with activity on the light side domestically and

offshore too. CBR rate meeting today will probably see rates left unchanged as the

committee decide to ignore political pressure and focus more on persistent inflationary

pressure. Don't expect too much impact on fx.

ZAR The SARB shocked markets yesterday by voting 4 to 2 to stay on hold. Despite the upside

inflation print on Wednesday and escalation in the Middle East the SARB appear happy to be in

wait and see mode rather than pro-actively hiking. This obviously surprised the market given 30

bps were priced and the debate was around whether they could even go 50bps. Obviously the

rand quickly sold off when they remained on hold, with USDZAR gapping up from around

16.47 onto a 16.70 handle, with heavy rand selling from HFS and RM. This now increases risks

of a catch-up hike in September, but with inflation high and above target it is seen as a policy

mistake, and so can see USDZAR pushing through 17.00, especially if no let up in the Middle

East. Worth noting our strategy team have moved from OW to MW ZAR, and see fair value

closer to 17.30. We also reduced our USDZAR shorts.

TRY USDTRY remains well contained around state-bank offers currently at 47.3450 with the usual

1100 pips 3-day adjustment. There were again better outflows from offshore clients yesterday

given the broad risk-off sentiment with approx. $4 bio traded around state bank offers. CBT left

rates unchanged yesterday, and did not restart the one-week repo auctions this morning. While