Liberty Energy Inc: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Unexpected Capex Raise Raises the Stakes for an ESA in 2026 Given LPI Financing Needs

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Liberty Energy Inc: 2Q26 Post Mortem and Model Update: Unexpected Capex Raise Raises the Stakes for an ESA in 2026 Given LPI Financing Needs

on (LAET’s El Reno

testing facility), and commercial proposition (Vantage, SLB, PowerBridge) that Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

sets up LPI as a more strongly positioned behind-the-meter (BTM) power player, Adj. EPS ($)

we believe the selloff in the stock can be attributed to the higher-than-expected 2025A 2026E 2027E

capex guidance, as well as the lack of a new ESA that can provide a line-of-sight Q1 0.04 0.06A (0.07)

Q2 0.12 0.09A 0.06

to derisking the 1 GW (of (either contracted and/or deployed) target by YE2027 Q3 (0.06) 0.13 0.10

and 3 GW target by YE2029. Q4 0.05 (0.01) 0.05

FY 0.15 0.27 0.13

Ultimately, we believe that the -22% reaction in the stock reflects investor concerns

Style Exposure

around LBRT’s ability to secure an ESA in the near-term, as an ESA would be a

catalyst to enable project financing. In the absence of an ESA and line-of-sight to

project financing, the higher-than-anticipated $5-6bn capex target for a 3 GW

buildout adds to the overall risk profile of the stock. In turn, any incrementally

positive but qualitative newsflow that lacks details on economics and execution

timing of an ESA about LPI (ie. SLB-LBRT strategic alliance, LBRT-PowerBridge

JV) will be read defensively, unintentionally exacerbating pre-existing investor

concerns around if/when the company can sign an ESA (“if not now, when?”). We

still have confidence in LPI’s value proposition and LBRT’s ability to execute over

the long-term, but the end result appears to be a self-reinforcing loop of negative

sentiment on LBRT share price in the near-term.

For 3Q26 frac, LBRT enters the quarter with cautious optimism, balanced between