Scouting Report: What To Expect From CL‘s 2Q

研报英文原文证据摘录

Scouting Report: What To Expect From CL‘s 2Q

centers on the UBS Cons.

cost backdrop and how recent volatility impacts guidance from here. While spot rates Q1 0.97 0.97

remain below what was embedded in the $300M of additional inflation assumption and Q2E 0.95 0.95

could result in modest favorability on a full year basis, we still think the company is likely Q3E 0.90 0.92

to reiterate their outlook for +L/MSD EPS growth. We are forecasting GM for the year to Q4E 0.97 0.96

be down slightly (-7bps YoY vs. consensus -35bps and company guidance of down YoY) 12/26E 3.80 3.81

with our '26 EPS estimate of $3.80 in-line with consensus and towards the midpoint of 12/27E 4.07 4.04

the company's implied guidance range of $3.73-$3.92. 12/28E 4.39 4.33

Peter Grom

Where Will 2Q Organic Sales Land? Analyst

For the quarter, we are forecasting organic sales growth of +2.7%, which is 22bps peter.grom@ubs.com

ahead of Visible Alpha consensus. Our forecast is predicated on +0.9% volume mix (Str. +1-212-713 3482

+0.7%) and +1.7% price (Str. +1.8%). By segment, we are above Visible Alpha Sona Fernandes

consensus in North America and Latin America (our NA forecast of +0.5% is below Analyst

Bloomberg consensus of 1.5%), below in EMEA and Asia-Pacific, and broadly in-line for sona.fernandes@ubs.com

Hill's. See details below. +1-212-649 8050

Tristan How

Valuation: Buy Rating And $106 Price Target Associate Analyst

Our price target is based on a balanced P/E and EV/EBITDA methodology. tristan.how@ubs.com

+1-212-713 1081

Highlights (US$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 19,457 20,100 20,382 21,436 22,188 23,037 23,924 24,849

EBIT (UBS) 4,036 4,352 4,347 4,449 4,693 4,965 5,253 5,559

Net earnings (UBS) 2,680 2,961 2,996 3,049 3,229 3,440 3,663 3,902