Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A.: Resilience more than priced-in; Down to Sell

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Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A.: Resilience more than priced-in; Down to Sell

Caixa Seguridade Participações S.A. UBS Research

UBS Research THESIS MAP aThesisguideMapto our thinking and what´s where in this report

Pivotal Questions Q: Can CXSE surprise on premium/earnings growth in 26/27E?

We don't think so, at this point. We expect mortgage to remain resilient (+13/12% YoY),

supported by Caixa’s mortgage loans, which should also sustain residential growth at +13/14%

YoY under the new cross-sell strategy. However, credit life is likely to remain subdued at -2% YoY

in 2026 (following -21% YoY in 1Q and -27% YoY in Apr, as the new private-payroll product is still

gaining traction, the INSS suspension continues, and higher for longer rates limit eligible

origination and renegotiations) and then recover in 2027E (UBSe at +37%YoY). Overall, we

project premium growth of +10/13% for consolidated premiums or +4/9% considering pension

contributions, with risks skewed to the downside given credit life and pension dynamics. We flag

the recent low levels of loss ratio as well, limiting upside revisions. We also believe most of

these expectations are already reflected in the share price

Q: Will a higher for longer interest rate environment support financial results?

Yes. With consensus now forecasting Selic at 14% by YE26 and 12% by YE27, revised upward

through 1H26, we expect financial results to remain supportive in 26-27E, partially offsetting

pressure in credit linked products. Although the company already indicated during its CC that

sensitivity to interest rates should be approximately R$40mn for each 1pp reduction in Selic, we

believe most of the upside from the deterioration in interest rate curves has already been