Porto Seguro: Positive trends overshadowed by Porto Bank; 2Q Preview

研报英文原文证据摘录

Porto Seguro: Positive trends overshadowed by Porto Bank; 2Q Preview

k, while raising our 2027–28E estimates by +1%, on

average, driven by better financial results and stronger premium growth. Kaio Prato

We foresee adj. earnings at R$3.8bn 26E (+11%YoY, +2% above consensus) and Analyst

R$4bn 27E (+8%YoY, -1% below consensus). kaio.prato@ubs.com

+55-11-3513 6573

In Insurance, we increase our Auto written-premium estimate for 2026E Camila Azevedo

following the recent solid operating trends. April written premiums grew Associate Analyst

+7%YoY, while the loss ratio improved to 61% from 63% in March, although camila.azevedo@ubs.com

remaining 2p.p. above April 2025. +55-11-2767 6881

In Health, we reduce our premium estimates by -1% in each of 2026–28E, Bruno Kenji

reflecting softer top-line dynamics and the ongoing product-mix shift toward Associate Analyst

bruno.kenji@ubs.com

lower-ticket products, despite continued client expansion and disciplined

+55-11-2767 6056

loss ratios.

For 2Q26E, we forecast net income of R$900m, in line with consensus, up

by 3%YoY but down by -7%QoQ. YoY results should be driven by insurance,

health and financial. On the other side, sequential decline to be mainly driven

by higher credit losses at Porto Bank and loss ratio at Insurance/Health,

partially offset by a +34%QoQ recovery in financial results.

Valuation: Neutral rating with PT of R$53

We value Porto using 8x PE target multiple (from 9x) applied to our 3Q27-2Q28E

earnings estimates, also backed by residual income. We see it trading at 9x PE

26/27E, with 8% yield.

Highlights (R$m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 31,900 36,832 41,231 45,152 48,752 52,378 54,369 57,270

Net earnings (UBS operating income) 2,273 2,663 3,357 3,916 4,037 4,393 4,695 4,979