Eneva The Quarter Matters, But the Investment Cycle Matters More

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Eneva The Quarter Matters, But the Investment Cycle Matters More

Global Research

21 July 2026ab

Eneva Equities

BrazilThe Quarter Matters, But the Investment

Cycle Matters More Electric Utilities

12-month rating Buy

12m price target R$32.50We expect a solid and high-quality quarter, but not necessarily a stock-moving

one. The investment case remains driven by the multi-year earnings

acceleration embedded in LRCAP rather than by a single quarterly result. Price (21 Jul 2026) R$25.42

RIC: ENEV3.SA BBG: ENEV3 BZ

Execution Remains on Track, But the Story Is Bigger Than 2Q26

Trading data and key metrics

As Eneva approaches its 2Q26 release, we do not believe the quarter itself is likely

to be a major catalyst for the shares. Our estimates stand at R$1.348bn of EBITDA 52-wk range R$27.59-13.39

and R$170mn of net income, compared with consensus at R$1.296bn and R$70mn, Market cap. R$49.2b/US$9.70b

respectively. While we expect results modestly above market expectations, Shares o/s 1,937m (COM)

particularly at the bottom line, most of the key operating drivers appear well Free float 100%

understood ahead of the release. Avg. daily volume ('000) 9,027

Avg. daily value (m) R$231.9

Normalization, But Not Deterioration Common s/h equity (12/26E) R$20.5b

We believe the market is broadly correct in expecting a normalization relative to P/BV (12/26E) 2.4x

the unusually strong and one-off-inflated 1Q26. Where we differ is in how we Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 4.7x

interpret that normalization. We expect 2Q26 to show that Eneva's earnings base

EPS (UBS, diluted) (BRL)

remains resilient even in a quarter marked by maintenance outages, lower thermal

UBS Cons.

dispatch than the exceptional levels seen in 1Q26, and the absence of extraordinary

12/26E 0.18 0.50