Acerinox Q2‘26 First Take: solid ~20% EBITDA beat, Q3 guide implies ~10% upside to consensus

研报英文原文证据摘录

Acerinox Q2‘26 First Take: solid ~20% EBITDA beat, Q3 guide implies ~10% upside to consensus

Dominic O'Kane AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-6729 24 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

dominic.j.okane@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Acerinox (Underweight; Price Target: €14.40)

Investment Thesis

We have an Underweight rating on Acerinox. Following the ~$1bn acquisition of Haynes,

ACX derives ~90% EBITDA from the US (off low EU base), the highest within our EU steel

coverage, which is set to benefit from higher US steel pricing in 2026. However, this also

suggests ACX to benefit less vs European-centric stainless steel producers from pricing

recovery in Europe driven by new trade measures. Over the long term, we believe the

agreement to acquire Haynes will support diversification of cash flows into a niche market

that has attractive end-market dynamics (i.e. strong growth, market concentration).

Following strong share price performance in 2025/26 ACX now trades above our fair value.

Valuation

We base our Dec’27 PT on a 75%/25% blended average of: 1) 6.5x-8.0x to SS and VDM

EBITDA for the 12m to Dec’27E, and 2) a DCF-based approach, assuming 0.75x P/NPV,

10% nominal WACC and 2.5% terminal value. We believe a DCF-based approach properly

incorporates long-term decarbonisation obligations that are relevant for the equity thesis of

steel equities. Our target EV/EBITDA is in line with ACX’s historical trading multiple to

reflect normalised earnings from FY’25+. The target multiple trails the North American

specialty alloy peers’ multiple of 8-9x.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key Upside risks include:

• Stronger global Stainless steel markets, and base prices, particularly in US

• Higher synergies from VDM & Haynes

• Movement in raw material input costs