EM Strategy Update: Renewed Iran tensions

研报英文原文证据摘录

EM Strategy Update: Renewed Iran tensions

J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy

24 July 2026

EM Strategy Update: Renewed

Iran tensions

We reduce risk across FX and rates and add select

hedges

Emerging Markets Strategy

Anezka Christovova AC

(44-20) 7742-2630

anezka.christovova@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

• A breakdown in the MOU between the US and Iran has brought energy price Arindam(65) 6882-7759Sandilya AC

risks back to the fore for EM markets; we thus deem it prudent to reduce some arindam.x.sandilya@jpmorgan.com

risk/add hedges amid elevated uncertainty. JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch

• We acknowledge that geopolitical developments can also quickly turn bullish, Ben Ramsey AC

hence we broadly stick to our core portfolio allocations (OW EM FX, MW (1-212) 834-4308

rates, sovereigns and credit). benjamin.h.ramsey@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

AC• However, we close more vulnerable OWs/receivers in FX and rates and add Yang-Myung Hong

select rates payers (HUF 1y IRS, 2y Chile breakeven inflation). (1-212) 834-4274

• EM FX: We close OW CLP and ZAR. Regionally, this now leaves us OW ym.hong@jpmorgan.comJ.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Latam, MW EMEA EM and UW EM Asia, with the combined changes AC Ayomide O Mejabi

reducing our overall GBI-EM FX OW by half. (44-20) 7134-9399

• In outright trades, we stay long INR on RV vs. PHP and IDR, but overlay with ayomide.mejabi@jpmorgan.com

a 2m USD call/INR put option hedge (98 strike, spot ref. 96.83/2M NDF ref. J.P. Morgan Securities plc

97.46, costs 0.71% USD in premium). Michael Harrison AC

(44-20) 7134 5720

• EM rates: We closed OW SAGBs yesterday but keep other positions michael.p.harrison@jpmorgan.com

unchanged (OWs in Hungary, Colombia, Mexico and Paraguay against UWs J.P. Morgan Securities plc