Taking Stock with De Bock - Trading global discord

研报英文原文证据摘录

Taking Stock with De Bock - Trading global discord

Global Research

23 July 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Strategy

GlobalTaking Stock with De Bock - Trading global

discord Reinout De Bock

Strategist

reinout.de-bock@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0152

A brief history of Interdependence

July is a special month. The US declared independence on 4 July 1776 and a crowd in

Paris stormed the Bastille on 14 July 1789. We can go further back in time to 26 July

1581. That's when a group of Dutch provinces declared independence of the Spanish

King Philip II in the Act of Abjuration. The Act states that any prince gets its power from

the people. In his book "Peak Human," Johan Norberg points out that the words of the

Act will resonate with anyone who has read the US Declaration. Hugo Grotius then

developed foundations of international law and freedom of seas to help independent

states interact. In "Global Discord," Paul Tucker explains how the work of Grotius

ultimately led to the current international order, but also warns that the shift toward a

world of sovereign states was neither sharp nor clear.

Weakening co-ordination versus a "Kindleberger trap"

Clients are concerned that the need for international co-ordination is increasing

precisely as the US signals a corollary to the "Monroe Doctrine." Clients have made a

link to the “Kindleberger Trap" or the idea that the absence of a hegemon or a broad

group of countries capable of providing global public goods will lead to instability. In his

book “The World in Depression," Charles Kindleberger explained how this trip helped a

crisis spread from Austria to Germany and Britain and ultimately the US in the 1930s.

Coordination still there

I think that co-operation remains a reality on key topics such as monetary policy, bank