Raiffeisen Bank Intl: Rasperia claim set to be filed - clear positive

研报英文原文证据摘录

Raiffeisen Bank Intl: Rasperia claim set to be filed - clear positive

diluted) (EUR)

the next 6-12 months. Assuming the amount limit allowed under the terms of the anti- UBS Cons.

suit injunction applies, the EUR2.85bn gain (to be received by RBI outside of Russia) after 12/26E 7.44 6.59

EUR150m legal costs would equal 15% of current market cap and allow for significantly 12/27E 8.14 6.79

higher strategic flexibility for RBI and potentially material shareholder distributions. 12/28E 8.73 7.05

Strategic flexibility is crucial as RBI is preparing for the next strategic cycle, identifying

accretive growth drivers, setting capital allocation policy, and repositioning the bank for Mate Nemes, CFA

Analyst

the post-Russia growth phase - both organically and inorganically (see here and here).

mate.nemes@ubs.com

+41-44-234 23 18

ROTE should go to 15% in 2027E - rapid profitability improvement

Nicolas O'Sullivan

ROTE should go to 15% in 2027E, optionality with Russia RBI shows improving Core (ex.

Russia) operating trends, accelerating (and solid) broad based volume growth, lower nicolas.o-sullivan@ubs.com

interest rate sensitivity, and better-than-expected asset quality. With lower prospective +44-20-7568 5364

CHF mortgage loan provisioning in Poland, normalizing trading & FV income, and loan

growth driving NII, we see RoTEs improving from 10% in 2025 to 12% in 2026E and

15% in 2027E.

Valuation: based on GGM

Excluding Russia, RBI is trading at 9x PE2027E and 1.4x P/TNAV YE26E for 14.6% ROTE

2027E (and 15.5% in 2028E) before the aforementioned potential gain from the

Rasperia claim. We reiterate our Buy rating.

Highlights (€m) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E

Revenues 9,066 8,701 9,097 9,002 9,234 9,352 9,684 10,112