Philip Morris International Inc: EPS estimates unchanged post 2Q26 results

研报英文原文证据摘录

Philip Morris International Inc: EPS estimates unchanged post 2Q26 results

x

USD EPS growth going forward, which can support its valuation multiple, in our view.

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

12/26E

Estimates, price target and valuation: We slightly raise our FY26 organic sales From To % ch Cons.

growth estimate to +5.4% (prev +5.1%), with combustibles now +3.3% (prev +2.6%) Q1 1.96 1.96 0 1.96

and smoke-free +8.4% (prev +8.6%) - and OI to +8.2% (prev +7.8%). Due to better Q2E 2.06 2.20 7 2.04

cigarette volumes, PMI could report another year of positive volume growth; supporting Q3E 2.37 2.31 -3 2.43

its better than staples peers growth algorithm, in our view. Due to below the line items, Q4E 2.00 1.93 -4 1.97

our EPS estimates are changed. We retain our $182 target price and Neutral rating. 12/26E 8.40 8.40 -0 8.41

Valuation: PMI is trading on a fwd P/E of 21.5x, which is a c+15% premium to US 12/27E 9.04 9.04 -0 9.13

staples; vs historic 10Y average of a c-15% discount. 12/28E 9.86 9.86 0 9.93

Faham Baig

Conference call highlights: PMI sees an opportunity to accelerate investment behind Analyst

new ZYN innovations (early Ultra data points are encouraging) to support its leading faham.baig@ubs.com

premium position, however it will do so in a profitable manner. The unchanged FY26 cFX +44-20-7568 3966

guidance also includes H1 shipment being a bit above IMS, which is likely to reverse in Emily Teo

H2. The company is confident IQOS volume growth can reaccelerate in Japan and Associate Analyst

Europe, as the consumer impact from price increase and flavour ban, respectively, eases. emily-s.teo@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 1002

Questions for management: What factors could allow a return to double digit smoke-

free volume growth next year? What do you believe is a reasonable volume growth