Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (SCAb.ST)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Forest harvesting (kt) 5,396 5,309 5,458 5,485

Wood products deliveries (kt) 2,122 1,978 2,111 2,111

Pulp deliveries (kt) 987 1,040 1,032 1,032

Kraftliner deliveries (kt) 948 1,042 1,060 1,060

Kraftliner price (EUR/t) 823 872 873 891

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Construction activity RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Wood costs Moderating wood cost inflation 5,474 Pulp and containerboard prices Faster recovery in construction cycle EBITDA

Power prices Higher pulp prices (SKr, mn) 5,130 7,565

EUR:SEK & USD:SEK exchange rates 5,674

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Structural pressure on wood product activities 3,207

Slower interest rate easing cycle, weighing on EBIT 2,970 5,496GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE construction (SKr, mn) 3,490

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Weaker economics in renewable energy 0-10% China and India projects

0-10% North America 3.25

0-10% UK DPS 2.10 3.50 OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (SKr) 10-20% MEA 3.03

60-70% Europe ex UK Inst. Owners, % Active 76.1%

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x 3.09

View explanation of regional hierarchies here EPS 2.87 5.94 HF Sector Net Exposure 2.1% (SKr)

3.56

MS ALPHA MODELS Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

5/5 3 Month inconsistenttrends. Long/Shortwith orRatiomay =notLongreflectExposurebroader/ Shortmarket Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research MOST Horizon

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /