Flutter Entertainment PLC: Underlying US Performance Looks Solid, But FY26 Remains a Show Me Story

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Flutter Entertainment PLC: Underlying US Performance Looks Solid, But FY26 Remains a Show Me Story

yearexpectations.). The same is true for leverage, where much of the anticipated Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$9.13b

improvement remains contingent on back end loaded earnings delivery. As such, while P/BV (12/26E) 1.9x

we expect a supportive Q2 update, we continue to believe Flutter remains a largely Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 3.5x

'show me' story, with meaningful validation of both EBITDA delivery and deleveraging

unlikely until later in the year. EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

12/26E

US Forecasts: Underlying Trends Better Than Reported Revenues From To % ch Cons.

I1E 2.84 2.84 0 -

For the US, we forecast Q2 revenue decline of -10% to $1,616m (-4% vs. consensus; -

I2E 3.04 2.97 -2 -

3% vs guide), based on our state level revenue model.

12/26E 5.82 5.75 -1 -

iGaming - This comprises iGaming revenue growth of +15% YoY (+3% QoQ) to 12/27E 10.08 10.16 1 -

$583m. We observe +1% QoQ growth in FanDuel iGaming revenues across 12/28E 12.47 12.41 -0 -

reported state data, which we adjust upwards to reflect incremental PokerStars Ben Shelley, ACA

revenues. While YoY iGaming growth has moderated against tougher Analyst

comparatives, we note that the 2Y CAGR continues to improve. ben.shelley@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 3957

OSB handle - We also forecast online sports betting (OSB) revenue decline of -

20% YoY to $976m. Within this, we forecast handle growth of +4%, comprising Robin M. Farley

Analyst +1% growth in existing states and a +3ppt contribution from new states YoY.

robin.farley@ubs.com

Encouragingly, we also observe Flutter's handle market share dynamics improved +1-212-713 2060

on a YoY basis in June, potentially illustrating strong execution regarding the world

cup. Jarrod Castle, CFA