First thoughts post the 1H analyst call and results

研报英文原文证据摘录

First thoughts post the 1H analyst call and results

gradually decline, the working capital should see cash inflows. We also had a closer look

at accruals (Contract assets and deferred cost liabilities). While we estimate that 1Q EBIT

could have seen some support from the change in accruals q/q, we calculate a neutral

impact on EBIT from the Q2 movements in accruals (Fig 3). From the Q2 disclosure it is

unclear to us if the DKK -541m change in provision mainly reflects the utilisation of

provisions or it could be related to a reversal of provision. While the former would have

no impact on the P&L, the latter would be supportive to Q2 EBIT.

What could Q3 EBIT be? Starting from the underlying Q2 EBIT of DKK 6bn, adding the

DKK 300m increase in synergies q/q and the average historical seasonality Q3 vs. Q2 (a

6% increase q/q on average) we calculate a Q3 EBIT of around DKK 6.6bn vs. cons

DKK 6.7bn.

What happens to FY26 estimates? Putting together all the incremental information

today we see an FY26E EBIT around DKK 24bn as realistic. This is around 3% below the

co. compiled cons. of DKK 24.7bn.

Next catalysts? The stock was cheap relative to peers and history ahead of Q2

results. Post results the stock de-rated by a further 10%. An appealing valuation is

unlikely to be sufficient to drive a meaningful re-rating. We believe investor's attention

will be on management comments around progress on the Road turnaround and the

cash generation in Q3. We rate the stock Buy with a PT DKK 2,015.

Figure 1: The Q2 q/q change in NWC/Sales is similar to the change observed over

periodsSource:UBSe.of strongThe NWCsequentialexcludes the DKKincreases1.8bn of inSchenkerratesbuildingslike Q2/Q3sold. Including2021 andtheseQ1/Q2would take2024.Thethe

2Q26 NWC/Revenues to 14%.