Estee Lauder, Procter & Gamble: Is the China turnaround durable? Part 1: Competitive landscape

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Estee Lauder, Procter & Gamble: Is the China turnaround durable? Part 1: Competitive landscape

24 July 2026

U.S. Beverages, Household & Personal Care Products

Estee Lauder, Procter & Gamble: Is the China turnaround durable?

Part 1: Competitive landscape

Perhaps the brightest spot in Estee Lauder’s turnaround story, Mainland China has gone Cristian Rios

+1 917 344 8615 from declining to double-digit reported growth in just one year. The resurgence has been so

cristian.rios@bernsteinsg.com pronounced that the key debate now is whether the recovery can be sustained. Given that

Mainland China is now the company’s fastest-growing segment, the answer has significant

Yolanda Zhang implications for the broader turnaround story.

+1 917 344 8346

yolanda.zhang@bernsteinsg.com

In this series, we will examine whether the drivers behind the recent improvement are

durable or a temporary inflection point following several years of challenges. We also

explore P&G’s SK-II trajectory and its recent rebound.

Today’s note, the first in the series, uses Euromonitor data to assess high-level market and

competitive dynamics. Through this lens, a durable turnaround would ideally be supported

by three factors: a) a steadily growing market, b) consistent market share gains, and c)

favorable sub-category trends.

The data paints a mixed picture, though there are reasons for optimism. Ultimately, the

sustainability of EL’s turnaround will depend on continued market growth (possible, but

far from guaranteed) and on whether the Estee Lauder brand can continue to gain share

in Skincare and Makeup, as it did in 2025. In our view, this will largely depend on whether

the brand’s recent success was driven by reinvestment in media and innovation, or by more