Metso Corporation: Q2‘26 Results – First Take - 8% Order Beat driven by strong Minerals performance; Outlook expects unchanged demand

研报英文原文证据摘录

Metso Corporation: Q2‘26 Results – First Take - 8% Order Beat driven by strong Minerals performance; Outlook expects unchanged demand

Chitrita C Sinha AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7742-7176 24 July 2026 J P M O R G A N

chitrita.sinha@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Metso Corporation (Overweight; Price Target: €19.00)

Investment Thesis

• Mining outlook very positive. We are very constructive on the mining cycle given the

substantial investment required to close projected supply deficits (especially in Copper)

and continued support from declining ore grade. Metso has the highest exposure to

Copper (c.41%).

• Margin uplift. The company is targeting >20% margin in Minerals and >17% margin

in Aggregates by 2028. This is much higher than sell-side consensus. If the company

achieves this then we would expect a re-rating.

• Aggregates outlook upside. The comps into 2026 are easy and we expect both North

America and Europe to show some growth next year. There is also further upside in case

of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire scenario.

Valuation

Our December 2027 Price Target is based on a reverse DCF valuation. The 12-month

forward target multiple is 14x EV/adj. EBITA, applied to our 2028 forecasts. The multiple

takes into account the through-cycle growth, margin, cost of capital and asset intensity.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Risks to the downside include:

• Mining recovery delayed. There needs to be more spend on Mining capex in order to

meet the needs from electrification and decarbonisation. However, delays in a Mining

recovery (due to prolonged permitting issues, miner prudence, etc) will limit the upside

potential for the name near-term.

• Earnings volatility. There can be quarterly volatility given the delivery of large orders