Ems-Chemie: From cars to robots: new vertical opportunities

研报英文原文证据摘录

Ems-Chemie: From cars to robots: new vertical opportunities

potentially includes adjacent robotics applications). We hence used our proprietary 12/26E 21.21 21.51 1 21.25

humanoids market forecasts to validate the potential revenue upside. In our view, 12/27E 22.12 22.78 3 22.59

delivering CHF60-100m of incremental sales with humanoids mid-term (~2030) is 12/28E 23.10 24.14 5 23.45

realistic assuming that EMS materials would not only substitute metals, but also

alternative plastic materials such as PEEK. Importantly, as a new vertical, any additional Patrick Rafaisz, CFA, FRM

business will be incremental to the turnover and likely accretive to margins. Analyst

patrick.rafaisz@ubs.com

+41-44-239 90 66

It's all about EBIT per kg and liter

Christian Bell, CFABased on management messaging, volume growth is driven by new applications both in

Analyst

existing (auto) and new verticals. These typically capture a higher margin and therefore christian.bell@ubs.com

foster continuing mix improvement. Hence, while we currently model EBIT margins to +44-20-7901 5493

stabilize at record levels (>30%), we would also flag mid-term upside risk if the

Leonie Zirn

humanoids opportunity materializes.

leonie.zirn@ubs.com

Valuation: Eq FCF 26E yield of 3.5%, slightly below history +41-44-235 0154

We value EMS-Chemie on a DCF (new WACC 6.8%, 2.5% t-growth unch.). We lower

our WACC by 40bps due to i/ the company's higher margin and FCF profile, ii/ more

diversified growth drivers (new verticals, balanced geo mix), and iii/ record net cash

position (>CHF700m). Along with higher earnings (forecast period and interim period)

the lower WACC results in our new PT of CHF860. EMS trades at a substantial but fully

justified premium to the European Chemicals and Swiss industrial SMID peer groups