Verbund: Hydro levels remain a headwind. H1 preview.

研报英文原文证据摘录

Verbund: Hydro levels remain a headwind. H1 preview.

age) in Q2 2026, we estimate a 0.7TWh y/y 12/26E 2.91 3.11

decline in hydro generation and a 3TWh loss vs normalized levels. We estimate H1 2026 12/27E 3.12 3.73

adj. net income at €517m, down 34% y/y. 12/28E 2.28 3.28

Downside risk to 2026 guidance Wanda Serwinowska, CFA

Analyst

We expect Verbund to narrow guidance given more visibility into the year, in-line with wanda.serwinowska@ubs.com

past policy. Currently, Verbund guides for 2026 EBITDA of €2.1-2.5bn (UBSe €2.14bn, +44-20-7568 3980

LSEG Workspace consensus €2.26bn) and net income of €1.0-1.2bn (UBSe €1.01bn,

Mark FreshneyLSEG Workspace consensus €1.07bn). To recall, Verbund guidance assumes normalized

hydro levels for the reminder of the year, while hydro was weak in Q2, which resulted in mark.freshney@ubs.com

lower hydro generation and volumes buyback, in our view. +44-20-7568 3989

Gonzalo Sanchez-Bordona

Where we could get it wrong?

We would not rule out some tailwinds to 2026 guidance which might partly offset the gonzalo.sanchez-bordona@ubs.com

negative impact from low hydro levels: (1) Windfall profit tax: the Austrian +34-91-745 4147

government is still reviewing the framework. The hedging price for Q2-Q4 implies a very

limited windfall profit tax impact on 2026 earnings (vs. c€0.2bn baked into the

guidance). In our view the government might opt for a special dividend, which would be

beneficial to EBITDA and the share price; (2) Other possible factors: positive effects

from the valuation of energy derivatives, higher earnings contribution from flexibility

products or higher temporary earnings from grids (which provide only a temporary

benefit and we would expect an offsetting impact on the surplus in the regulatory