Weekly Widget: Gas Turbines/Engines – If you build it, they will come

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Weekly Widget: Gas Turbines/Engines – If you build it, they will come

Idea

July 24, 2026 04:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MCapital Goods | Europe Max R Yates

Equity Analyst

Weekly Widget: Gas Turbines/ Max.Yates@morganstanley.comSara Chemello +44 20 7425-1917

Research Associate

Sara.Chemello@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2931

Engines – If you build it, they Harry Stephenson

Harry.Stephenson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0859

will come Sam Crean

Sam.Crean@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1983

We recalibrate our gas turbine supply model, now 146GW of

Capital Goods

2030 supply vs 135GW previously. We estimate ~44% of this is Europe

targeting the BTM market, where overcapacity risk is greatest. Industry View In-Line

The post 2030 ENR EBITA growth debate will persist, but there

is a catalyst path into year-end. OW ENR, UW Wartsila.

Key Takeaways

Gas turbine supply is back in focus after GEV's latest capacity additions. We are

also seeing newer entrants, like FTAI, receiving validation with order wins.

We update our gas turbine/power solutions supply model to 146GW by 2030

(prev 135GW). We update for GEV, ERock and Cummins.

We split this into 1) mid to large turbines and 2) BTM (small turbines, recips, fuel-

cell). We see a higher risk of BTM overcapacity, with 64GW of 2030 supply.

ENR has less slot reservations vs GEV, and hence another ENR capacity increase

is less likely. Industry price trends also point to upgrades on 2030 gas margins.

Siemens Energy: We stay OW based on 1) upside risk on 3Q gas orders, 2) upward

pressure on 2030 estimates from new targets, 3) undemanding valuation.

Exhibit 1: We increase our projected power solutions (gas turbines/prime

power) supply to 146GW in 2030 of single cycle capacity (previously 135GW). We