Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– Saab AB- Saab(SAABb.ST)AB (SAABb.ST)

Orders Momentum Drives Upside to Numbers

PRICE TARGET SKr 700.00 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Our SEK 700 price target is derived using a blended average of SOTP and DCF valuations. ▪Saab is well placed to capitalise on

Our SOTP is based on a ~21x EV/EBIT multiple and ~27x P/E in 2028, representing a 28% expanding European defence budgets, given

premium to peers (in-line with historical premium). Our DCF is based on a 3.0% terminal broad geographical (~75% of sales from

value and 7.5% WACC. NATO) and product (air defence systems,

radars/sensors) exposure. SKr 586.67 ▪Orders momentum is accelerating acrossConsensus Price Target Distribution SKr 330.00 SKr 760.00 Gripen, GlobalEye, Naval, GBAD/C-UAS, MS PT

Giraffe and NLAW with SEK 130bn recentlySource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

awarded and ~SEK 200bn oppportunity in

Gripen and GlobalEye only.

▪We include Naval restatment, Polish

RISK REWARD CHART submarines contracts and Ukraine Gripen

orders, driving our 10% EPS increase in

2030 and leaving us 30% above BBG

SEK

SKrSKrSKr 840.00(+43.15%)840.00840.00(+43.15%)(+43.15%) consensus.

▪We see Saab as one of the few names in

800 our coverage where consensus upgrade risk

remains clearly positive.

SKrSKrSKr 700.00(+19.29%)700.00700.00(+19.29%)(+19.29%) ▪ It creates an attractive entry point after

600 SKrSKrSKr 586.80586.80586.80 25% derating ytd.

SKrSKrSKr 540.00(-7.98%)540.00540.00(-7.98%)(-7.98%) Consensus Rating Distribution 400

42% Overweight

42% Equal-weight

17% Underweight

MS Rating

0 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

JUL '25 JAN '26 JUL '26 JUL '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Risk Reward Themes