Risk Reward Update: Kongsberg Gruppen ASA | Europe

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update: Kongsberg Gruppen ASA | Europe

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG.OL)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers Dec 2025 Dec 2026e Dec 2027e Dec 2028e

Group Organic Revenue Growth (%) 0.0 34.7 42.2 29.1

Group Operating Margin (%) 15.1 17.8 17.7 17.4

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Equipement Defence spending RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Military allocation Stronger order intake from NATO countries

Technological advances with further capacity expansion Sales / 62,724

OE and regulation development in Maritime Stronger operating leverage as well as Revenue 46,231 67,946

M&A in the sector favourable product and geographical mix (NKr, mn) 60,489

Valuation

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Lower than expected flow-down of orders from 11,130

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE EBIT

budget increase 8,478 13,139

(NKr, mn)

0-10% MEA Weaker execution on Defence 10,610

APAC, ex Japan, Mainland Higher ramp-up costs and less favourable mix 20-30% China and India

10.46 20-30% North America OWNERSHIP POSITIONING EPS 7.10 13.05 40-50% Europe ex UK (NKr)

10.20 Inst. Owners, % Active 82.7%Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 3.1x

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

HF Sector Net Exposure 34.7% Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

MS ALPHA MODELS

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

5/5 3 Month exposuresinconsistentheldwithwithor mayMSPB.notInformationreflect broadermay bemarket

MOST Horizon trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored