Waste Connections Inc (WCN.N): Commodity Tailwinds Support Raised ‘26 Outlook; Read-Throughs for Peers

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Waste Connections Inc (WCN.N): Commodity Tailwinds Support Raised ‘26 Outlook; Read-Throughs for Peers

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23 Jul 2026 21:52:22 ET │ 17 pages

Waste Connections Inc (WCN.N)

Commodity Tailwinds Support Raised ’26 Outlook; Read-Throughs for

Peers

CITI'S TAKE

We’re updating est. following solid 2Q results and a raised ’26 outlook. Neutral

Specifically, WCN raised EBITDA guidance from $3.300-$3.325B to

$3.330-$3.340B to reflect improved commodities (across E&P, Recycling Price (23 Jul 26 16:00) US$167.99

and RNG) and incremental M&A (est. +$10mm) more than offsetting FX. The Target price US$182.00

outlook for core Solid Waste is largely unchanged with expectations for Expected share price return 8.3%+50-70bps underlying margin expansion. FCF guidance is unchanged as

higher interest expense (+$28mm) offsets higher EBITDA; cash outlays for Expected dividend yield 0.8%

Chiquita Canyon could be $125-$150mm in ’26, within the previous range Expected total return 9.2%

($100-$150mm). We model 3Q EBITDA of $889mm as margins could rise Market Cap US$42,342M+20bps Y/Y to 34.0% on underlying net price (+40bps) and Recycling

(+10bps) more than offsetting M&A (-10bps) and fuel (-20bps). We est. 3Q

revenue comprises ~26% of the FY total, in-line with last year, and E&P

revenue is flattish Q/Q. Our target price is unchanged at $182; remain

Neutral. Price Performance

(RIC: WCN.N, BB: WCN US)

Read-throughs for peers (GFL, RSG, WM) – On the earnings call, WCN discussed

the knock-on impacts of higher fuel costs, including a slowdown in the pace &

magnitude of construction-related activity, and exacerbated churn in certain

markets as customers responded to surcharges; we est. guidance now assumes

volume will be ~100bps worse than originally expected. Positively, the net impact of