Ryder System, Inc.: Highlights from Calls with Management and Model Update

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Ryder System, Inc.: Highlights from Calls with Management and Model Update

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Ryder System, Inc. Neutral

R, R US

Highlights from Calls with Management and Model Price (23 Jul 26):$267.91

Update ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$296.00 Prior (Dec-26):$259.00

R underperformed on a tough day for freight in general as the company’s updated

2026 guide did not push consensus higher while the 3Q26 outlook came in below Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shippingthe Street. We flagged last quarter that the pivot to a rental fleet focused on smaller

trucks could limit Ryder's earnings upside to improving freight conditions, and Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

2Q26 reinforced that concern as utilization rates moved back to the normal range (1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

but on a -15% smaller fleet. Management confirmed that it did not see enough

demand to justify growing the rental fleet, in part while rental demand from its own Grady Carr

(1-212) 622-1251

lease base has yet to return. The longer duration business lines are improving with grady.carr@jpmchase.com

FMS lease and DTS contractual signings rebounding to multi-year highs,

Brandon Wexler

positioning fleet counts to stabilize by year-end and return to growth into 2027. (1-212) 622-1956

SCS experienced some slippage due to business wins ramping up later than brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

expected. We continue to view Ryder's transformed model as structurally more J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

resilient and cash-generative than in prior cycles, but with rental sidelined and

contractual fleet growth still several quarters out, we see limited upside to guidance

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)until the cyclical levers begin to convert.

Adj. EPS ($)