Sunoco L.P.: Thoughts into 2Q26: Strong Quarter & Guidance Raise Expected

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Sunoco L.P.: Thoughts into 2Q26: Strong Quarter & Guidance Raise Expected

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Sunoco L.P. Overweight

SUN, SUN US

Thoughts into 2Q26: Strong Quarter & Guidance Raise Price (23 Jul 26):$74.59

Expected ▲Price Target (Dec-27):$84.00 Prior (Dec-26):$73.00

After updating our model we forecast 2Q26 adj. EBITDA of $953mm versus the

$931mm Street median. On Fuel Distribution, we model $534mm, reflecting Head of North America Power,

Utilities, Midstream, LNG, andsequentially stronger volumes (3.8bn gallons in 1Q), weighing ongoing PKI

Nuclear

integration paired with consistent bolt-on M&A, collectively driving higher total

platform output. On Fuel Distribution margin, we see tailwinds following the late- Jeremy Tonet, CFA AC

March/early-April commodity spike and gradual price decline thereafter. On (1-212) 622-4915

jeremy.b.tonet@jpmorgan.com

Burnaby, we model $126mm after the refinery returned to service in late March

Vrathan Reddy

following a planned ~50-day turnaround, positioning the asset for a full-quarter

(1-212) 622-4692

contribution in 2Q. Pipeline and Terminals remain steady, printing a combined ~ vrathan.reddy@jpmchase.com

$286mm in 1Q, a reasonable bogey for 2Q given generally stable cashflows. PKI Eli Jossen, CFA

synergy capture, tracking towards a >$250mm run-rate floor, and continued bolt- (1-212) 622-4113

on execution across a highly fragmented market collectively reinforce our view eli.jossen@jpmchase.com

that SUN aims well above the midpoint of the $3.1-3.3bn 2026 adj EBITDA guide, Francina Kolluri

where we expect a formal raise alongside results. Weighing the above, we establish (1-212) 270-5796

a $84 Dec 2027 PT. francina.kolluri@jpmchase.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC