Transformation + Upcycle - ST Noise = More Upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Transformation + Upcycle - ST Noise = More Upside

Idea

July 23, 2026 11:30 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMRyder System Inc. | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Transformation + Upcycle - ST Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Noise = More Upside Madison J Pasterchick

What’s Changed Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Ryder System Inc. (R.N) From To Ryder System Inc. (R.N, R US)

Price Target $280.00 $320.00

Freight Transportation | United States of America

Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Price target $320.00

Unchanged Modest upside Largely unchanged Shr price, close (Jul 23, 2026) $267.91

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month Mkt cap, curr (mm) $10,475

consensus EPS 52-Week Range $284.02-157.78

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

We expect the primary debate following R's 2Q to center around

the pace of the recovery rather than its direction. Near-term SCS

contract noise aside, new transformation gains and early upcycle

evidence means the stock remains underappreciated even at

record highs.

Key Takeaways

Management reaffirmed $70mm of strategic initiative benefits in 2026, with

execution continuing to improve earnings quality.

Lease demand strengthened, rental utilization returned to its 75% target, and

used vehicle pricing improved sequentially.

Mgmt. highlighted additional earnings potential if rental demand accelerates and

truck pricing moves beyond current mid-single-digit gains.

Delayed SCS project ramps and a smoother post-transformation earnings offset

some cyclical gains but do not alter the longer-term trajectory.