Erste Group: €4bn+ net income in 2026E, strong capital position provides year-end deployment optionality

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Erste Group: €4bn+ net income in 2026E, strong capital position provides year-end deployment optionality

10.05 10.33 2.8%

streamline its messaging around capital deployment, focused on maximizing value Adj. EPS - 27E (€) 10.68 10.86 1.8%

for S/Hs, we do not expect full clarity with the 2Q results as the mechanics around a

stake increase remain complex and any communication from Erste would also depend Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

on the capital build through the year, i.e. we see this as more likely to be a year-end Adj. EPS (€)

2025A 2026E 2027E

exercise. In our sensitivity, a stake increase to 75% from 49% currently is c.150bps of Q1 1.82 2.57A

CET1 consumption at the current EBP price and would lead to 8%/9% EPS accretion Q2 2.11 2.51

in 2027/28E, respectively, with lower Net income attribution to minority interests, Q3 2.20 2.72

Q4 2.11 2.53

improving net income/RWAs by c.20bps p.a. On our current forecasts, Erste reaches FY 8.21 10.33 10.86

CET1 ratio of 15.5% at YE26 with a 40% payout ratio assumption and hence we see

any final clarity around the stake increase and payout to only come later in the year Style Exposure

as Erste has better visibility on its CET1 ratio exit rate; and ii) Targets for 2026, where

we see some upside to the prior Stated Net Income expectation of below €4bn and

would expect Erste to reiterate its 2026 NII outlook of €11bn+ and Fees outlook of c.

€4bn even excluding FX transaction fees of c.€0.2bn p.a. from EBP which Erste

Group books in trading.

Erste has guided to several integration related effects during 2026 and beyond, with

1Q 26 the peak of these effects in our view as IFRS 9 related provisions of €302mn

(€120mn post tax and minorities) are non-recurring while integration costs and FVA

will continue.