Stora Enso: Q2‘26 review: Miss driven by non-core division but, regardless, results in mild downgrades to estimates

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Stora Enso: Q2‘26 review: Miss driven by non-core division but, regardless, results in mild downgrades to estimates

DA - 27E (€ mn) 1,514 1,476 -2.5%

wood costs which have increased ~3% q/q and data available to us suggests

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Dec)

wood costs could climb even more in Q3’26. Overall, supply/demand remains

Adj. EBITDA (€ mn)

weak, which is in line with our expectations and forecasts, but earnings in 2027 2025A 2026E 2027E

and beyond should improve as a result of the completion of the Oulu ramp-up Q1 320 309A 398

(expected to be at full capacity during 2027) and “own-actions” which will Q2 284 320A 388

Q3 283 336 355

drive ~60-70% of the margin uplift in the division over the next 2-4 years. We Q4 255 315 334

continue to forecast EBIT margins to increase from Q2’26 levels of 6.5% to FY 1,138 1,280 1,476

12.6% by 2028.

Style Exposure

• Integrated Packaging. Integrated Packaging EBITDA missed our own

estimates by ~ €8m in the quarter with EBITDA only growing by ~ €3m q/q,

despite higher linerboard prices in the quarter. That said, we still expect

sequential improvement through the rest of the year as higher testliner prices

get implemented at the box level and higher kraftliner prices flow through and

boost earnings on their long kraftliner position in Q3’26. As a result of better-

than-expected kraftliner pricing, our EBITDA for 2027 increases by ~3%

despite the miss in Q2’26. It is worth noting that if costs were to recede (OCC,

energy, wood) we would expect any cost relief to be met with lower end product

prices.

• Biomaterials. While Q2’26 beat our estimates, we still lowered our FY’27

EBITDA estimate by ~10% due to (1) higher Finnish wood costs than initially

envisaged and (2) the loss of CO2 emission allowances. We continue to model