Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Risk Reward Update

d volatility data from the options market as of 23 Disruption: Positive

Jul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Secular Growth: Positive

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE €27.50 BASE CASE €22.00 BEAR CASE €16.00

3DE product cycle becomes the standard Innovating within a large long-term TAM Dassault struggles to re-accelerate

Our bull case assumes a faster 2026 growth After macro/deal slippages leads to c. 4% cc We assume Dassault continues to run at a

rebound and that the 3DExperience revenue growth in FY25, we assume a lower growth ebb, with Medidata struggling

adoption cycle accelerates. Dassault also moderate recovery to c. 5% cc in FY27 and c. to accelerate beyond low-single digit %,

drives high economics through a 6% thereafter. This is driven by Dassault while 3DE migrations fail to deliver high

subscription shift, while Medidata's product continuing to penetrate the PLM/digital conversion uplifts. As a result, revenues

innovation combines with a market recovery, manufacturing opportunity as well as a grow at a c. 4.5% CAGR 2026-29e, c. 3.5% in

growing back at a high-single digit % rate. gradual recovery in Medidata/life sciences 2028-35e. Progress on expanding margins is

Group revenues grow at a c. 8% CAGR off a low base, as Medidata's innovation limited, remaining around c. 32% in FY28e as

across FY26-29e, c. 6% FY29-36e. We positioning improves. Adj. EBIT (ex-SBC) Dassault reinvests, remaining there long-

assume a higher 3% terminal growth rate. At margin is c. 32.5% in FY26e, rising to high term. We use a lower terminal growth rate