Cross-border M&A and FX: GBP inflows, renewed CHF outflows, no AI-driven US pick-up

研报英文原文证据摘录

Cross-border M&A and FX: GBP inflows, renewed CHF outflows, no AI-driven US pick-up

Octavia Popescu AC (44-20) 3493-5654 Global Markets Strategy J P M O R G A N

octavia.popescu@jpmorgan.com Cross-border M&A and FX

J.P. Morgan Securities plc 23 July 2026

Shaun Daly (44-20) 7134-0776

shaun.daly@jpmorgan.com

M&A volumes have recovered to 2021 levels, prompting us to revisit trends in cross-

border M&A flows and potential impact on FX. Cross-border M&A flows are

relevant for currencies as they are a real-time and leading indicator for a subset of

realised FDI, as we have shown previously (most recently: Cross border M&A and FX:

On near-shoring, de-globalisation and Japan outflows, Popescu & Chandan, 2024), and

thus a building block for the basic balance (the sum of current account, net FDI inflows

and net equity portfolio inflows). FX tends to be more sensitive to the basic balance than

the current account alone: for deficit countries, it captures whether the deficit is financed

by long-term, rate-insensitive flows; for surplus countries, it shows whether flows

augment or offset the surplus. Since FDI is reported in BoP data with a one-quarter lag

while M&A is available in real time, monitoring M&A flows offers a timelier read on

FX-related flows—especially for currencies whose M&A and FDI flows co-move.

Figure 3: Cross-border M&A volumes have picked up this year…. Figure 4: … to the strongest 1H since 2007, prompting us to revisit

Monthly global cross-border M&A deal value (USD bn) less average of the same where these cross-border flows are going

month in the previous 10 years; by announcement date*. Vertical line is start of 2026. Global aggregate cross-border M&A deal values at announcement (USD bn). Full year

(bars) vs 1H annualised