Post-Crimson Desert cooldown: Await DokeV clarity; PT cut to W27K

研报英文原文证据摘录

Post-Crimson Desert cooldown: Await DokeV clarity; PT cut to W27K

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

23 July 2026

Pearl Abyss Underweight

263750.KQ, 263750 KS

Post-Crimson Desert cooldown: Await DokeV clarity; PT Price (23 Jul 26):W34,150

cut to W27K ▼Price Target (Dec-27):W27,000 Prior (Dec-26):W46,000

Despite a 52% pullback from the April peak (vs. KOSPI +29%), which we view

as a reset from overly bullish expectations for Crimson Desert (CD) as a global Internet and Telco

AAA hit, we remain UW on: (1) a bit faster-than-expected deceleration in CD sales Stanley Yang AC

and risk of guidance cuts; (2) limited near-term pipeline momentum; (3) a poor (82-2) 758-5712

track record of launch timing; and, most importantly, (4) earnings peaking in stanley.yang@jpmorgan.com

2026E, followed by a material step-down in 2027E-29E. Valuation remains Benjamin Kim

demanding, in our view, at a 25.1x/17.3x/18.9x 2027E/28E/29E P/E, without a big (82-2) 758-5580

benjamin.kim@jpmorgan.com

potential surprise of DokeV upside (late 2028E launch), and we cut our PT by 41%, J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul

to W27,000, on a target 2027E P/E of 19.3x; we prefer SHIFT UP (OW) within Branch

mid-/small-cap gaming for a more attractive setup.

• CD’s post-launch momentum is fading, driving our expectation of a slight Key Changes (FYE Dec)

miss for CD revenue vs. the lower end of guidance (W224B-277B; equivalent Prev Cur Δ

to 2.8M-3.5M full-price units, on our estimate) and an increased risk of Adj. EPS - 26E (W) 5,411 4,995 -7.7%

Adj. EPS - 27E (W) 1,498 1,360 -9.2%

management’s cutting 2026 full-year revenue guidance (W644B-735B, Adj. EBIT - 26E (W bn) 505 430 -14.7%

equivalent to 8.1M-9.2M full-price units, on our estimate), as Steam traffic and Adj.