Colombia: Export tailwind, import overhang

研报英文原文证据摘录

Colombia: Export tailwind, import overhang

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

23 July 2026

Colombia

Export tailwind, import overhang

Emerging Markets Economic and

Policy Research

Juan Goldin

(57 601) 869 8746

juan.goldin@jpmchase.com

BANCO J.P. MORGAN COLOMBIA S.A

• The merchandise trade deficit (FOB-CIF) remained wide through May, Diego W. Pereira

with higher exports offset by rising imports

(1-212) 834-4321

• Export momentum remains strong, now bolstered by improved export diego.w.pereira@jpmorgan.com

prices, increasing by 15.5% year-to-date J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

• Import strong growth pace lingers, up 11.1% year-to-date, driven entirely

by higher volumes and concentrated in consumption goods

• Remittances have surprised to the upside this year, up by 5.9% YTD,

providing an important buffer to the external position

Colombia’s export sector started the year with solid momentum—initially driven

by stronger volumes and, since March, increasingly supported by higher export

prices. However, wide external imbalances continue to cloud the outlook. Robust

import growth is absorbing the export improvement, making the gap between

domestic demand and supply more visible and consistent with the impulse from

expansive fiscal and income policies; indeed, import values have returned to levels

last seen in the overheated year 2022. As a result, the merchandise trade deficit is

likely to remain elevated: strong household consumption is driving import growth,

while the export tailwind from higher prices and improved terms of trade provides

only a partial offset. Remittances have again surprised to the upside this year,

providing an important buffer and helping keep the current account deficit

relatively low by historical standards.