Norfolk Southern: First Look at 2Q26 Earnings

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Norfolk Southern: First Look at 2Q26 Earnings

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Norfolk Southern Neutral

NSC, NSC US

First Look at 2Q26 Earnings Price (22 Jul 26):$330.94

Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Initial View – Modest Positive. We expect the stock to react favorably to a solid Shipping

operating beat despite deteriorating network performance while the end market Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

outlook improves. New COO Brian Barr will be one of the key speakers on the call, (1-212) 622-1023

as he steps into the role with increasing dwell, slower train speed, and lower car brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

miles per day. The outlook for 3Q26 will be a focal point given the current operating

performance, although the network appears to have better momentum than

suggested by the primary KPIs. The net impact of fuel in the quarter will also be

a focal point after UP recorded a net tailwind while CSX highlighted a negative lag.

We do not expect to hear many incremental updates on M&A, which will be

covered on the UP call ahead of a key filing date on Monday.

• Financial guidance adjusted while end market outlook modestly

improves. Norfolk increased the 2026 adjusted opex target as expected,

moving to $8.8-8.9B (previously $8.2-8.4B), as higher fuel prices pushed the

range up $400-500mm along with the impact of higher volume. Management

does not have a specific revenue guide, but it would also increase as a result of

these same two factors. Norfolk modestly upgraded its end market outlook

with expected strength in Truck Market and additional support in Merchandise

from Industrial Activity, which improved for the second quarter in a row.

Utility Demand softened the Coal outlook, which is likely a function of natural