Tesla Inc: Lower Estimates on Large Margin Miss with Investments Ramping; FSD Subscriptions Rising and Robotaxi on Track, That Should Drive Positive Feedback Loops and Eventual EPS Inflection

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Tesla Inc: Lower Estimates on Large Margin Miss with Investments Ramping; FSD Subscriptions Rising and Robotaxi on Track, That Should Drive Positive Feedback Loops and Eventual EPS Inflection

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

23 July 2026

Tesla Inc

Lower Estimates on Large Margin Miss with Neutral

Investments Ramping; FSD Subscriptions Rising and TSLA, TSLA US

Robotaxi on Track, That Should Drive Positive Price (22 Jul 26):$374.01

Feedback Loops and Eventual EPS Inflection ▼Price Target (Dec-27):$445.00 Prior (Dec-27):$475.00

TSLA’s 2Q26 results came in well below both JPMe and company-compiled

consensus on EBIT and EPS (Table 1TSLA2Q26Actualsvs.JPMe(adjustedforone-timers)), largely driven by softer than anticipated gross Autos & Auto Parts

margins, with the shortfall driven by a combination of lower regulatory credits, rising Rajat Gupta AC

interest rate subvention costs, warranty headwinds in ESS, and commodity cost (1-212) 622-6382

headwinds. Underlying automotive gross margins ex-regulatory credits were flat q/q rajat.gupta@jpmorgan.com

when adjusting for one-time items in 1Q related to warranty and tariff relief, helping Jash Patwa

alleviate concerns that recent volume strength (see here for our take on 2Q deliveries) (1-212) 622-5472

jash.patwa@jpmchase.com

was purely incentive-driven. FSD is increasingly becoming a key purchase

Yash Beswala

consideration (subscriptions +15% q/q), a dynamic we have consistently highlighted

(1-212) 622-0028

as fueling positive feedback loops for both sales and ongoing autonomous technology yash.beswala@jpmchase.com

improvement. Robotaxi operations continue to scale, with recent expansions into J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

Orlando and Tampa, and management provided greater clarity around TSLA’s