FY26 Apr–Jun Results Preview: Expect Consensus Overshoot

研报英文原文证据摘录

FY26 Apr–Jun Results Preview: Expect Consensus Overshoot

Idea

July 23, 2026 06:30 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MPetrochemical Majors | Japan Takato Watabe

Equity Analyst

FY26 Apr–Jun Results Preview: Takato.Watabe@morganstanleymufg.comRyoichi Watanabe +81 3 6836-5436

Ryoichi.Watanabe@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8929

Expect Consensus Overshoot Kayoko Shoji

Research Associate

Kayoko.Shoji@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5437

Below we summarize key points ahead of F3/27 1Q results. Kano Fujita

Excluding some firms, we expect strong progress rates vs. ResearchKano.Fujita@morganstanleymufg.comAssociate +81 3 6836-8932

market consensus and company plans.

Key Takeaways

We believe F3/27 1Q results will exceed consensus, partly due to inventory

valuation gains, but do not expect any major surprises. Petrochemical Majors

Japan

We believe most companies will leave FY26 plans intact. Industry View Attractive

Petrochem margins improved across more products both YoY and QoQ in Apr– Results schedule for 5 petrochemical majors

Jun: Ethylene operating rates, a key indicator, below 90% for nearly 4 years since Share Price Earnings

Aug 2022. Apr–Jun 2026 rate fell 6ppt+ QoQ to 67%. Since Mar, utilization has Rating price22-Jul(¥) target(¥) announcementexpected date

dropped below 70% due to concentrated maintenance shutdowns and feedstock Petrochemical3407 Asahi KaseiMajors OW 1,857 2,200 31-Jul

constraints caused by Middle East tensions. Among 17 major petrochemical 40054042 SumitomoTosoh Chemical OWEW 2,811548 2,900850 4-Aug4-Aug

products, Apr–Jun 2026 production increased YoY for only 2 (AN and PS). On a 41834188 MitsuiMitsubishiChemicalsChemical Group OWEW 2,2031,196 2,9001,250 31-Jul5-Aug

QoQ basis, 8 products increased and 9 declined.