Spotify & US Music: Is this as good as it gets on pricing? We see upside through at least next year

研报英文原文证据摘录

Spotify & US Music: Is this as good as it gets on pricing? We see upside through at least next year

23 July 2026

Estimate Change

Ian Moore

+1 917 344 8434

U.S. Entertainment ian.moore@bernsteinsg.com

Spotify Technology SA

Rating

Outperform

Price Target

SPOT 625.00 USD

Spotify & US Music: Is this as good as it gets on pricing? We see

upside through at least next year

For the better part of a year, our research on Spotify & the music industry has focused on the

Close Date 22 Jul 2026

superfan. The quieter opportunity, however, continues to reside in the core paid streaming

SPOT Close Price (USD) 474.16

subscriber, where both volume penetration and realized price remain incompletely harvested.

Price Target (USD) 625.00

Spotify’s successive pricing actions across markets that account for the vast majority of its

Upside/(Downside) 32%

global base have already compounded into higher industry monetization. The question that

52-Week Range 748.30/405.00

remains is whether the rate of Y/Y pricing gains in Q2/Q3 represents a high-water mark.

SPX 7,498.96

Perhaps on the core rate of change, but with YouTube & now Apple Music matching Spotify’s

FYE Dec

recent moves and measurable headroom still evident in global price & volume, we see runway

Div Yield NA

to realize further value ahead of expectations that stretches at least through 2027.

Market Cap (USD) (M) 97,598

Our mid-teens medium-term growth algorithm for Spotify is driven 5% by volume, EV (USD) (M) 77,278

6-7% by pricing & 3-3.5% by superfan monetization. We estimate Spotify’s Premium Performance YTD 1M 6M 12M

TAM at ~$107B today and ~$127B by 2030. Superfans, however, continue to offer the Absolute (%) (18.3) 3.2 (4.9) (29.8)